Change or die has been the prime rule of business for the last 2 decades. It is a rule that the oil and American auto industries seem to feel shouldn't apply to them.
I’m quoting from a comment left by my fellow soccer mom Lisse on my post here last month. These two sentences in particular jumped out at me because this year I’ve had the opportunity to speak with executives from both industries – namely Exxon Mobil and General Motors – about their plans to diversify in light of environmental considerations. I’ll address Exxon Mobil in this post and General Motors in my regularly scheduled post on May 24.
On February 12, I participated in a conference call regarding climate change with Ken Cohen, Vice President of Public Affairs for Exxon Mobil, along with several other, much harder-hitting political bloggers. While I didn’t approach the call with the animosity of some of the other bloggers, I had recently attended two auto shows as a guest of General Motors, and I was quite interested to learn about Exxon Mobil’s role in researching and pioneering alternative fuel technologies.
When I did ask my question, Mr. Cohen reminded me that Exxon Mobil was not an auto manufacturer and proceeded to list all the obstacles to mass production of alternative fuels.
While I was somewhat surprised that Mr. Cohen felt compelled to clarify what business he was in, based on the reading I did prior to the call – namely, a speech given by Exxon Mobil Chairman and CEO Rex Tillerson – I wasn’t surprised by the litany of obstacles he rattled off.
From Mr. Tillerson’s speech on November 30, 2006:
"By the year 2030 – less than twenty-five years from now – the world’s energy needs will be almost 50 percent greater than they were last year, driven mostly by growth in developing countries.
The gap between U.S. energy consumption and domestic energy production – a gap on the order of 15 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, or 30 percent of daily demand – is filled primarily with imports of fossil fuels.
More efficient use of energy can reduce demand, and increased use of alternatives can increase domestic energy supply, but no conceivable combination of the two can realistically close the gap. To leave the gap unfilled would have dire consequences for our economy and possibly our security. It would jeopardize the American Dream for our children."
“Jeopardize the American Dream for our children”? Wow.
In the same speech, Mr. Tillerson discusses alternative fuels such as ethanol:
"Biofuels, like many alternative sources, play an important role. But they too currently face significant obstacles.
In the United States, corn is the principle source of ethanol. Currently, 13 percent of the U.S. corn crop is needed to meet 2 percent of U.S. total gasoline demand by equivalent volume. By 2012, mandated ethanol production would drive ethanol’s share of total U.S. gasoline demand up to 3 percent. But to achieve this, about 21 percent of the U.S. corn crop will be needed – an increase of about 50 percent.
As these trends indicate, we cannot produce enough ethanol from corn in this country to meet all of this country’s gasoline needs, much less total oil needs."
The stage is set; we need to produce more oil, right here at home:
"Federal and state governments in this country have ruled off-limits an estimated 31 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 105 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. And the majority of those amounts are not found in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. They are found in the Rockies and off many of the coasts of the continental United States.
Industry has developed the technologies and acquired the experience to produce these resources safely and with a minimal environmental footprint and we are doing it around the world today. What we lack is the permission to access them. Access granted could lead to imports reduced."
I understand that Exxon Mobil is a petrochemical company, and they are in business to make money while meeting people’s needs. People need energy, and Exxon Mobil knows how to provide it – in the same form that they always have. Reducing imports reduces our dependence on foreign oil, but be honest – it also leads to greater profits for Exxon Mobil. Sure, it seems like a win-win, but wouldn’t it be a bigger win to work toward mass production and mass distribution of alternative fuels?
Which brings me to the part of Mr. Tillerson’s speech that really bothered me:
"Oil, like all fossil fuels, is indeed finite, but it is far from finished. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that approximately 2 trillion barrels of conventional oil resources remain – or about twice the amount produced since the dawn of time."
Do the math, and that means we’ve used one-third of the available oil resources, “since the dawn of time.”
In another speech the day after our conference call with Mr. Cohen, Mr. Tillerson made these statements:
"The good news is that abundant oil resources are available to meet the projected growth in demand. According to the U.S. Geological Survey the earth was endowed with more than 3 trillion barrels of conventional oil. This estimate has grown steadily over the years as our industry has developed new and more sophisticated technologies to locate and produce these resources.
If we add estimated “frontier” resources, such as heavy oil and shale oil, this total rises to over 4 trillion barrels. Considering we have used 1 trillion barrels of oil in the history of mankind, the outlook for future supply is positive."
(Well, he did say that the USGS “estimate has grown steadily over the years”, but I’m fairly shocked that the estimate rose from “approximately 2 trillion” to “more than 3 trillion barrels” in less than three months.)
Again, Mr. Tillerson states that we’ve used “1 trillion barrels of oil in the history of mankind”. Have we been refining petroleum since the dawn of time? Throughout the history of mankind?
A petroleum timeline published by the Energy Information Administration (a statistical agency of the Department of Energy) documents the following milestones:
1859 – Oil was first discovered when a homemade rig drilled down 70 feet and came up coated with oil. This rig was near Titusville (in northwestern Pennsylvania) and was owned by Colonel Edwin L. Drake.
1950 – Oil became our most used energy source because of automobiles.
1970 – Production of petroleum (crude oil and natural gas gas plant liquids) in the U.S lower 48 States reached its highest level at 9.4 million barrels per day. Production in the lower 48 States has been declining ever since.
2001 – U.S. petroleum consumption reached 19.7 million barrels per day, an all-time high. To meet demand, crude oil and petroleum products were imported at the rate of 11.9 million barrels per day, while exports measured 1.0 million barrels per day.
How many of those 1 trillion barrels were used prior to 1859? Or even prior to 1950?
With misleading language like that used by Mr. Tillerson in these speeches, it’s difficult to believe that the oil and gas industry is being honest in other regards. While they no longer deny the science behind climate change (but caution that further study is warranted, and I agree), their stubborn insistence that plenty of oil and gas remains to be drilled (and that alternative fuels are not realistic – that is, not a realistic business proposition) betrays their commitment to the status quo. I agree that the demand for oil and gas will not disappear overnight, but perhaps Exxon Mobil – and the rest of us – would be better served by efforts to expand their business model to fit the direction the rest of the world is heading.
Please check back on May 24 for the second half of this discussion – how the auto industry, particularly General Motors, is handling environmental challenges.
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